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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.